Russo-Ukrainian war

=== Independent Ukraine and the Orange Revolution ===

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1991, Ukraine and Russia maintained ties. In 1994, Ukraine signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and agreed to give up the former Soviet nuclear weapons in Ukraine. In return, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States agreed to uphold the territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine through the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. In 1997, Russia signed the NATO-Russia Founding Act, in which it acknowledged that "NATO has expanded and will continue to expand its political functions". In 1999, it was also one of the signatories of the Charter for European Security, affirming the right of each state "to choose or change its security arrangements" and to join military alliances if it wishes. Several former Eastern Bloc countries joined NATO, partly in response to regional security threats involving Russia. In 2005, Putin said that if Ukraine and other former Soviet states wanted to join NATO, "we will respect their choice, because it is their sovereign right to decide their own defense policy, and this will not worsen relations between our countries." Putin later said Western powers broke promises by expanding NATO eastward, even though no agreements or promises to this effect were made.

The 2004 Ukrainian presidential election was controversial. During the election campaign, pro-Western opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned by TCDD dioxin; he later accused Russia of involvement. The more Russia-friendly candidate Viktor Yanukovych was declared the winner, despite allegations of vote-rigging by election observers. During a two-month period which became known as the Orange Revolution, large peaceful protests successfully challenged the outcome, and the Supreme Court of Ukraine annulled the result due to widespread electoral fraud. A re-run election was won by Yushchenko. The Russian government sees the Orange Revolution as one of the "colour revolutions" in former Soviet states. According to Anthony Cordesman, Russian military officers viewed such "colour revolutions" as attempts by the US and European countries to undermine Russia.

At the 2008 Bucharest summit, Ukraine and Georgia sought to join NATO, but NATO members were split. Western European countries opposed offering Membership Action Plans (MAP) to Ukraine and Georgia, fearing it would unsettle Russia. NATO refused to offer Ukraine and Georgia MAPs but also issued a statement agreeing that "these countries will become members of NATO" at some point. Putin strongly opposed their NATO membership bids.

Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008 and took control of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, demonstrating Russia's willingness to use military force to attain its political objectives. Political scientist Paul D'Anieri says the United States "was accused of appeasement and naivete" over its reaction to the invasion. The West's weak response in 2008—and later in 2014—contributed to Russia's assessment of Western warnings against the 2022 invasion as not serious, and, according to political scientist Samuel Ramani, encouraged further Russian aggression.

Viktor Yanukovych won the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election. In early 2013, the Ukrainian parliament overwhelmingly approved of finalising a free trade and association agreement with the European Union (EU). The Kremlin pressured Ukraine to reject this agreement; Russia imposed embargoes on Ukrainian goods and threatened further sanctions. Kremlin adviser Sergey Glazyev warned that Russia might no longer acknowledge Ukraine's borders if the agreement was signed.

Under pressure from Russia, in November 2013, Ukrainian president Yanukovych suddenly withdrew from signing the agreement. This sparked a wave of massive protests, known as the "Euromaidan." The protesters opposed Russian interference, government corruption, abuse of power, and human rights violations, including new anti-protest laws.

The protests led to the Revolution of Dignity. On 28 January 2014, Ukraine's government resigned. On 18–20 February, more than 100 protesters were killed in clashes with Berkut special riot police; most were shot by the Berkut. On 21 February, President Yanukovych and the opposition leaders signed an agreement to bring about an interim unity government, urgent constitutional changes (which needed to be signed by the president), and early elections. However, Yanukovych secretly fled the capital that evening and did not inform parliament of his whereabouts. The next day, Ukraine's parliament unanimously voted to remove Yanukovych from office. About 73% of the parliament and members of all parties voted to remove him, including members of his own party and of the pro-Russian Communist Party.

On 27 February, an interim government was established, and early presidential elections were scheduled. The following day, Yanukovych resurfaced in Russia and declared that he remained the president of Ukraine. Some political leaders in the mainly Russian-speaking eastern regions declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych.

From late February 2014, demonstrations by pro-Russian, separatist, and counter-revolutionary groups took place in several cities in eastern and southern Ukraine. Most of the protests were in the Donbas region, made up of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast. In the last census, the population of the Donbas was about 58% ethnic Ukrainian and 38% ethnic Russian (Donetsk was 57% Ukrainian and 38% Russian, while Luhansk was 58% Ukrainian and 39% Russian). A national survey held in March–April 2014 found that 58% of respondents in the Donbas wanted to remain part of a unitary or federal Ukraine, while 31% wanted the region to separate from Ukraine. There were smaller protests in Kharkiv and Odesa.

The first protests were largely native expressions of discontent with the new Ukrainian government. On 23 February 2014, Ukraine's parliament adopted a bill to revoke the status of Russian as an official state language. The bill was not enacted, but the proposal caused anger among some Russian speakers in Ukraine. In the last census, 75% of people in Donetsk Oblast and 69% of people in Luhansk Oblast had Russian as their mother tongue, although most Ukrainian citizens spoke both Ukrainian and Russian. These regions mostly consumed Russia-based media, which promoted the narrative that Ukraine's new government was an illegitimate "fascist junta" and that ethnic Russians were in imminent danger.

Russia used the protests to launch a campaign of political warfare, information warfare, and irregular warfare against Ukraine. Leaked e-mails and telephone calls later revealed that the Russian state had funded the separatists and had organised separatist protests, mainly through Kremlin advisers Vladislav Surkov and Sergey Glazyev. Ukrainian authorities arrested local separatist leaders in early March. Those leaders were replaced by men with ties to the Russian security services and Russian business interests.

On 6 April 2014, hundreds of masked men stormed and seized weapons from the Security Service buildings in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Protesters then stormed and occupied the Donetsk regional government headquarters, raising the Russian flag and demanding a referendum on joining Russia. The next day, the activists held a meeting in the building and proclaimed the "Donetsk People's Republic" an independent state. On 29 April, armed pro-Russian activists stormed and occupied the Luhansk regional government headquarters, proclaiming the "Luhansk People's Republic."

According to political scientist Paul D'Anieri, Russia had the following four causes to start its war with Ukraine in 2014, as well as for the 2022 war:

Russia's desire to regain control of Ukraine and turn it into a puppet regime.

Russia's conception of itself as a great power entitled to a sphere of influence over the former Soviet Republics.

The security dilemma in Europe, with Russia perceiving the expansion of NATO as a threat and other East European states desiring guarantees against Russian expansionism.

Democratic Ukraine being perceived by Russia as a political threat to the authoritarian regime in Russia.

The Russian occupation of Crimea is usually deemed to be the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war. This was followed by the War in Donbas (2014–2022) and then the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, which started the current phase of the war.

Different start dates for the conflict have been identified. According to a number of scholars, the war began with the February 2014 Russian occupation of Crimea, in particular the 27 February storming of the Crimean parliament. The Ukrainian government declared 26 February the "Day of Resistance to the Occupation of Crimea," as on that day in 2014 a Crimean Tatar rally was held to oppose Russian interference. Some, including political scientist Andreas Umland, prefer 20 February – the day Russia supposedly issued orders to prepare for the invasion of Crimea, which is also the date engraved on the Russian Crimea campaign medal. Dutch Professor of Military History, Floribert Baudet, asserted that "Russia's war against Ukraine did not start in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea" because Russia had been subverting Ukrainian sovereignty long before this.

Analysts also differ over the nature of the conflict. Paul D'Anieri describes "a limited war in 2014, and then [a] much less limited war in 2022." In contrast, Ukrainian-American historian Serhii Plokhy said in 2023 of the then-ongoing war that "I decline the temptation to identify the date of February 24, 2022, as its beginning, no matter the shock and drama of the all-out Russian assault on Ukraine, for the simple reason that the war began eight years earlier, on February 27, 2014."

On 27 February 2014, Russian soldiers without insignia began to occupy Crimea. At first, Russia denied that the soldiers were theirs, instead claiming they were local "self-defense" units. Later, Putin admitted that they were Russian special forces and said that he decided to "return" Crimea to Russia when the revolution happened. Russia took advantage of the uncertainty in Ukraine immediately after the ousting of Yanukovych.

The unmarked Russian soldiers seized the Crimean parliament and government buildings in Simferopol, as well as setting up checkpoints to restrict movement and cut off the Crimean peninsula from the rest of Ukraine. While the armed men occupied Crimea's parliament, it dismissed the Crimean government and installed a pro-Russian government under Sergey Aksyonov, whose party won only 4% of votes in the last election. Historian Andrew Wilson and journalist Luke Harding called this the "Crimean coup." The parliament then announced a referendum on Crimea's status. No journalists had been allowed inside, and some MPs said votes had been cast for them even though they were not present. Russian rebel commander Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin later admitted:Unfortunately, I saw no support from public authorities in Simferopol ... Rebels assembled lawmakers to corral them into the hall so that they could vote. I was one of the commanders of those rebels. I saw that from the inside.

On 1 March, the Federation Council of Russia approved the use of armed force in Ukraine. Ukraine's prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, said that Russian military intervention would be the beginning of war, and Ukraine's representative told the UN Security Council that Russia was committing "an act of aggression against the state of Ukraine". Unmarked Russian special forces occupied airports and communications centres, and blockaded Ukrainian military bases, such as the Southern Naval Base. Russian cyberattacks shut down websites of the Ukrainian government, news media, and social media. Cyberattacks also enabled Russian access to the mobile phones of Ukrainian officials and members of parliament, further disrupting communications.

The referendum was held under Russian occupation on 16 March 2014. According to the Russian-installed authorities, the result was in favour of joining Russia. It annexed Crimea on 18 March 2014. It was the first time since World War II that a European country had annexed part of another. Following this, Russian forces seized Ukrainian military bases in Crimea and captured their personnel. On 24 March, Ukraine ordered its remaining troops to withdraw. On 15 April, Ukraine's parliament declared Crimea temporarily occupied by Russia. Russia militarized the peninsula and made nuclear threats. In his Crimean speech, Putin said Crimea had always been Russian and should never have become part of an independent Ukraine. He claimed that Russia did not want to take any other regions of Ukraine.

When Russia invaded Crimea, Ukraine was a neutral country under its Constitution, and Ukraine's post-revolutionary government was not seeking NATO membership. In response to Russia's annexation and further attacks on Ukraine, some NATO members agreed to begin training the Ukrainian army.

In April 2014, the anti-government protests in the Donbas developed into armed conflict between Russian-backed separatists and Ukraine. Russian citizens with links to its security forces had taken control of the separatist movement by this stage. Russia deployed 30,000–40,000 troops near Ukraine's eastern border in early April. This military buildup was used to threaten Ukraine and hinder its response to the pro-Russian separatists, causing the Ukrainian military to divert its forces to the border instead of the Donbas. Russia began a "hybrid" conflict against Ukraine, involving disinformation, irregular fighters, regular Russian troops, and conventional military support.

On 12 April 2014, a heavily armed paramilitary unit crossed the border from Russia into Ukraine and took over Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast. They raided the police and Security Service (SBU) buildings, seizing a large amount of weapons, which were given to local pro-Russian separatists. The unit of more than 50 militants, sent from occupied Crimea, wore no insignia. They included fighters from Russia and Ukraine, commanded by former GRU colonel Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. In an interview for Russian ultranationalist newspaper Zavtra, he said that this action sparked the war in eastern Ukraine:I'm the one who pulled the trigger of this war. If our unit hadn't crossed the border, everything would have fizzled out, like in Kharkiv or Odesa.

The first conflict deaths in the Donbas occurred on 13 April, when the Russian paramilitaries fired on Ukrainian SBU officers outside Sloviansk. Ukrainian officer Gennady Bilichenko was killed and several wounded, while at least one Russian militant was killed by return fire. In response, on 15 April, the interim Ukrainian government launched an "Anti-Terrorist Operation" (ATO) in the Donbas. However, Ukrainian forces were poorly prepared, and the operation soon stalled. Russian separatist commander Strelkov said that Ukrainian forces were "extremely cautious" at first, as they did not know how Russia would respond. Due to worsening unrest in Donbas and the Russian military buildup near the border, Ukraine's armed forces reinstated conscription and were put on full alert for an invasion.

Pro-Russian forces carried out their first civilian killings in the Donbas on 17 April. They kidnapped local councillor Volodymyr Rybak after he tried to re-raise the Ukrainian flag in Horlivka. His body was dumped in a river along with those of Maidan activists Yuri Popravko and Yuri Diakovskyi – all had been tortured and mutilated. Russian paramilitaries kidnapped more than two dozen people in the first month of the war, including eight OSCE observers and journalists such as Simon Ostrovsky.

The separatists were supported with weaponry, artillery, armoured vehicles and volunteers from Russia, including Chechen and Cossack fighters. Putin gave legitimacy to the separatists when he described the Donbas as part of the historical imperial territory of "New Russia" (Novorossiya) and suggested it should never have become part of Ukraine. The separatists then began attempting to create a new entity called "Novorossiya".

The First Battle of Donetsk Airport was the first between Ukrainian and separatist forces that involved large numbers of Russian "volunteers".

Petro Poroshenko won the Ukrainian presidential elections in May. The separatist groups held disputed referendums that month, which were not recognised by Ukraine or any other UN member state.

On 5 July 2014, Ukrainian forces re-took Sloviansk and the pro-Russian forces retreated to Donetsk city. Russian commander Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin said that Donetsk was still relatively peaceful until then. He admitted responsibility for the shelling of the city by Ukrainian forces.

On 17 July 2014, Russian-controlled forces killed 298 civilians when they shot down a passenger aircraft, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, as it was flying over eastern Ukraine. Investigations and the recovery of bodies began in the conflict zone as fighting continued.

By the end of July, Ukrainian forces were pushing into cities, isolating Donetsk and attempting to restore control of the border. By 28 July, the strategic heights of Savur-Mohyla were under Ukrainian control, along with the city of Debaltseve, an important railroad hub. These Ukrainian successes threatened the existence of the DPR and LPR statelets, prompting Russian cross-border shelling targeting Ukrainian troops on their own soil, from mid-July onwards.

By August 2014, Ukrainian forces had regained much of the territory seized by the separatists. Igor Girkin ('Strelkov') urged direct Russian military intervention and said that the combat inexperience of his irregular forces, along with recruitment difficulties amongst the local population, had caused the setbacks. He stated, "Losing this war on the territory that President Vladimir Putin personally named New Russia would threaten the Kremlin's power and, personally, the power of the president". Strelkov said that in early August, Russian soldiers, supposedly on "vacation" from the army, began to arrive in Donbas. According to Nikolai Mitrokhin's estimates, by mid-August 2014 during the Battle of Ilovaisk, between 20,000 and 25,000 troops were fighting in the Donbas on the separatist side, and only 40–45% were "locals."

Russia dispatched what it called a "humanitarian convoy" of trucks across the border on 22 August 2014. Ukraine's security service called this a "direct invasion" and said the trucks were being used to move weapons and bring the bodies of Russian soldiers out of Ukraine.

Russia then began a more direct invasion of the Donbas. On 24 August 2014, Amvrosiivka was occupied by Russian paratroopers, supported by 250 armoured vehicles and artillery pieces. On 25 August, a column of Russian military vehicles was reported to have crossed into Ukraine near Novoazovsk on the Azov Sea coast. It appeared headed towards Ukrainian-held Mariupol, in an area that had not seen pro-Russian presence for weeks. The following day, the Russian Defence Ministry said these soldiers had crossed the border "by accident". Russian troops captured Novoazovsk and began deporting Ukrainians who did not have an address registered within the city. Pro-Ukrainian anti-war protests took place in Mariupol. The UN Security Council called an emergency meeting.

The Pskov-based 76th Guards Air Assault Division of the Russian Airborne Forces allegedly entered Ukrainian territory in August and engaged in a skirmish near Luhansk, suffering 70–80 dead. The Ukrainian Defence Ministry said that they had seized two of the unit's armoured vehicles near Luhansk and reported destroying another three tanks and two armoured vehicles in other regions.

The speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament and Russian state television channels acknowledged that Russian soldiers were in Ukraine but referred to them as "volunteers" fighting for the "Russian world." A reporter for Novaya Gazeta, an opposition newspaper in Russia, stated that the Russian military leadership paid soldiers to resign their commissions and fight in Ukraine in the early summer of 2014 and then began ordering soldiers into Ukraine. Russian opposition MP Lev Shlosberg made similar statements, although he said they were "regular Russian troops" disguised as units of the DPR and LPR. After Ukraine captured ten Russian soldiers in Eastern Ukraine, a Russian defence ministry source stated they were in Ukraine "by accident" while patrolling a section of the Russian-Ukrainian border.

On 3 September 2014, Poroshenko said he and Putin had reached a "permanent ceasefire" agreement. Russia denied this, denying that it was a party to the conflict, adding that "they only discussed how to settle the conflict." Poroshenko then recanted. On 5 September, Russia's Permanent OSCE Representative Andrey Kelin said that it was natural that pro-Russian separatists "are going to liberate" Mariupol. Ukrainian forces stated that Russian intelligence groups had been spotted in the area. Kelin said, 'There might be volunteers over there.' On 4 September 2014, a NATO officer said that several thousand regular Russian forces were operating in Ukraine.

On 5 September 2014, the Minsk Protocol ceasefire agreement drew a line of demarcation between Ukraine and separatist-controlled portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

Despite the Minsk ceasefire, sporadic clashes continued around Donetsk International Airport, the last part of Donetsk city held by Ukrainian troops. On 28 September, Russian-backed forces began an offensive to capture the airport. Ukrainian troops were besieged in the terminal and control tower. They were given the nickname "Cyborgs" as they withstood repeated Russian attacks in grim battlefield conditions. The siege lasted throughout winter, and most of the airport was destroyed by shelling. Eventually, on 21 January 2015, rebels took the airport with help from Russian special forces.

On 7 and 12 November, NATO officials reconfirmed the Russian presence, citing 32 tanks, 16 howitzer cannons, and 30 trucks of troops entering the country. NATO said it had seen an increase in Russian tanks, artillery pieces, and other heavy military equipment in Ukraine and renewed its call for Moscow to withdraw its forces. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs stated that Russian separatists enjoyed technical advantages over the Ukrainian army since the large inflow of advanced military systems in mid-2014: effective anti-aircraft weapons ("Buk" and MANPADS) suppressed Ukrainian air strikes, Russian drones provided intelligence, and the Russian secure communications system disrupted Ukrainian communications intelligence. The Russian side employed electronic warfare systems that Ukraine lacked. Similar conclusions about the technical advantage of the Russian separatists were voiced by the Conflict Studies Research Centre.

Ukraine declared the Russian-backed separatist republics to be terrorist organisations.

In January 2015, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Mariupol represented the three battle fronts. Poroshenko described a dangerous escalation on 21 January amid reports of more than 2,000 additional Russian troops, 200 tanks, and armed personnel carriers crossing the border. He abbreviated his visit to the World Economic Forum because of his concerns.

A new package of measures to end the conflict, known as Minsk II, was agreed on 12 February 2015, with a ceasefire due to begin on 15 February.

Despite the ceasefire, Russian-backed forces launched an offensive on Debaltseve, a strategic town and salient held by Ukrainian forces. By 18 February 2015, the 8,000 Ukrainian troops were close to surrounded and had been forced to retreat from Debaltseve under relentless fire, suffering heavy casualties. Russian-backed rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko had said his forces would not observe the ceasefire in Debaltseve, claiming it rightfully belonged to them. Ukraine, the EU, and the US accused Russia and its proxies of breaking the ceasefire and said that the Russian military itself took part in the offensive.

In September 2015 the United Nations Human Rights Office estimated that 8,000 casualties had resulted from the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

After the Minsk agreements, there were few changes in territorial control, while the war settled into static trench warfare around the agreed line of contact, marked by artillery duels and special forces operations. Hostilities never ceased for a substantial period of time but continued at a low level despite repeated attempts at ceasefire. Both sides began fortifying their position by building networks of trenches, bunkers and tunnels. The relatively static conflict was labelled "frozen" by some, though fighting never completely stopped. Between 2014 and 2022 there were 29 ceasefires, each agreed to remain in force indefinitely. However, none of them lasted more than two weeks.

US and international officials continued to report the active presence of the Russian military in eastern Ukraine, including in the Debaltseve area. In 2015, Russian separatist forces were estimated to number around 36,000 troops (compared to 34,000 Ukrainian), of whom 8,500–10,000 were Russian soldiers. Additionally, around 1,000 GRU troops were operating in the area. Another 2015 estimate held that Ukrainian forces outnumbered Russian forces 40,000 to 20,000. In 2017, on average, one Ukrainian soldier died in combat every three days, with an estimated 6,000 Russian and 40,000 separatist troops in the region.

The Battle of Avdiivka erupted on 29 January 2017 and lasted for several days. It saw the biggest and deadliest clashes in over a year, with more than thirty people killed and heavy artillery barrages. It began hours after newly elected US President Donald Trump spoke by telephone with the Russian President Putin. Some in the Ukrainian government believed that Trump's election emboldened the Russian-backed rebels. Kostiatyn Yeliseieiv, deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, said it was "a test from the Russian side, of the reaction of the new American administration."

More than 110 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the conflict in 2019. In May 2019, newly elected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took office, promising to end the war in Donbas. In December 2019, Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists began swapping prisoners of war. Around 200 prisoners were exchanged on 29 December 2019. In December 2019 Ukraine and Russia agreed to implement a ceasefire. The two sides agreed to swap prisoners of war and disengage military forces in several regions. Russia and Ukraine could not agree on the issues of the withdrawal of Russian-backed troops and the elections in the separatist-held regions.

According to Ukrainian authorities, 50 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in 2020. Between 2019 and 2021, Russia issued over 650,000 internal Russian passports to Ukrainians. There were 27 conflict-related civilian deaths in 2019, 26 deaths in 2020, and 25 deaths in 2021, over half of them from mines and unexploded ordnance.

From March to April 2021, Russia began a major military build-up near the Ukrainian border, followed by a second build-up from October 2021 onward, in both Russia and Belarus. Throughout, Russia said it was only holding military exercises, and Russia's government repeatedly denied it had plans to attack Ukraine.

In early December 2021, following Russian denials, the US released intelligence of Russian invasion plans, including satellite photographs showing Russian troops and equipment near the border. The intelligence reported a Russian list of key sites and individuals to be killed or neutralised. The US released multiple reports that accurately predicted the invasion plans.

In the months preceding the invasion, Russian officials accused Ukraine of inciting tensions, Russophobia, and repressing Russian speakers. They made multiple security demands of Ukraine, NATO, and other EU countries. On 9 December 2021, Putin said that "Russophobia is a first step towards genocide". Putin's claims were dismissed by the international community, and Russian claims of genocide were rejected as baseless. In a 21 February speech, Putin questioned the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state, repeating an inaccurate claim that "Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood". He incorrectly stated that Vladimir Lenin had created Ukraine by carving a separate Soviet Republic out of what Putin said was Russian land and that Nikita Khrushchev "took Crimea away from Russia for some reason and gave it to Ukraine" in 1954.

During the second build-up, the Russian government demanded NATO end all activity in its Eastern European member states and ban Ukraine or any former Soviet state from ever joining NATO, among other demands. A treaty to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO would go against the alliance's "open door" policy and the right of countries to choose their own security, although NATO had made no progress on Ukraine's requests to join. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg replied that "Russia has no say" on whether Ukraine joins and that "Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbors." NATO offered to improve communication with Russia and discuss limits on missile placements and military exercises, as long as Russia withdrew troops from Ukraine's borders, but Russia did not withdraw.

While Russian troops massed on Ukraine's borders, Russia's proxy forces launched thousands of attacks on Ukrainian troops in the Donbas. Observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which also includes Ukraine and Russia, reported more than 90,000 ceasefire violations throughout 2021; the vast majority were in Russian-controlled territory.

Fighting in Donbas escalated significantly from 17 February 2022 onwards. The Ukrainians and the pro-Russian separatists each accused the other of attacks. There was a sharp increase in artillery shelling by the Russian-led militants in Donbas. Ukraine and its supporters believed this to be an attempt to provoke the Ukrainian army to retaliate, to give Russia a pretext for invading. Ukraine's president Zelenskyy said that his military would not respond to the provocations. Separatist leaders warned that Ukraine was about to launch an offensive but gave no evidence, and The Guardian noted that it would be "exceedingly risky" for Ukraine to assault the Donbas while Russian troops were massed on its borders. On 18 February, the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics ordered emergency evacuations of civilians, although observers noted that full evacuations would take months. The Russian government intensified its disinformation campaign, with Russian state media airing videos on a nearly hourly basis purporting to show Ukrainian forces attacking Russia. Evidence showed that Russia was staging false flag attacks.

On 21 February at 22:35 (UTC+3), Putin announced that the Russian government would diplomatically recognise the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics. The same evening, Putin directed that Russian troops deploy into Donbas, in what Russia referred to as a "peacekeeping mission". On 22 February, the Federation Council unanimously authorised Putin to use military force outside Russia. In response, Zelenskyy ordered the conscription of army reservists; the following day, Ukraine's parliament proclaimed a 30-day nationwide state of emergency and ordered the mobilisation of all reservists. Russia began to evacuate its embassy in Kyiv.

On the night of 23 February, Zelenskyy gave a speech in Russian in which he appealed to the citizens of Russia to prevent war. He rejected Russia's claims about neo-Nazis and stated that he had no intention of attacking the Donbas.